Epistemologia (LM)

Inductive Logic and Rational Decision

Solo per l’a.a. 2018/19 il corso di Epistemologia (LM) mutuerà il corso di Filosofia della Scienza (LM). Ciò significa che le persone che hanno quest’ultimo nel piano di studi possono sostenere l’esame sul materiale e con la modalità del primo, iscrivendosi e ottenendo comunque i crediti per il corso di Filsofia della Scienza. Chi intendesse sostenere l’esame di Filosofia della Scienza sul programma di Filosofia della Scienza degli anni precedenti contatti me e il professor Sinigaglia per discutere il caso specifico.

This course aims at developing the basics of probability logic and its application to problems of inductive inference and rational decision. Familiarity with classical propositional logic is a useful pre-requisite for this course.

  1. Logico-mathematical preliminaries (from an elementary algebraic point of view)
  2. Probability logic (a.k.a. inductive logic)
  3. Probability, uncertainty and rationality

Practicalities

Language

The course will be delivered in English if non-Italian speakers are attending. The course-notes however are written in Italian. This guarantees that students who are not proficient in English maximise their understanding of the course material, while giving non-Italian speakers a chance to practice the language.

Exam:

Three written, in-class, tests, to be held at the end of each module. Those are not compulsory, but highly recommended. Three 30s make a 30 with no further examination needed.

Lecture notes

Versione aggiornata il 2 maggio 2018

 

Extra

A tutorial on conditional probability

Projects

Foundations of probability

  • de Finetti, B. (1931). Sul significato soggettivo della probabilità. Fundamenta Mathematicae, 17, 289–329.
  • Ramsey, F. P. (1931). Truth and probability (1926). In R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.), The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays (pp. 156–198). Kegan, Paul & Co, London.
  • de Finetti, B. (1938). Cambridge Probability Theorists. Rivista Di Matematica per Le Scienze Economiche E Sociali, (2), 79–91.
  • Jeffrey, R. C. (1968). Probable Knowledge. In I. Lakatos (Ed.), The Problem of Inductive Logic (pp. 166–180). North-Holland.
  • de Finetti, B. (1963). La decisione nell’incertezza. Scientia, 98, 61–68.

Topics in probability

  • Syua, E. D. (2013). Jacob Bernoulli and the Mathematics of Tennis, Nuncius, 28, 142–163.
  • Bianchi, L. A. (2018). Bayes e Bias. In Probabilità, Rischio e Previsione”, L’Aquila 3-5 maggio 2017.
  • Isola, S. (2018). Alcune osservazioni su probabilità, illusioni e senso comune. In Probabilità, Rischio e Previsione”, L’Aquila 3-5 maggio 2017.
  • Winkler, P. (2017). The Sleeping Beauty. The American Mathematical Monthly, 124(7), 579–587.
  • Samet, D., Samet, I., & Schmeidler, D. (2004). One Observation behind Two-Envelope Puzzles. The American Mathematical Monthly, 111(4), 347–351.
  • Grime, J: “Non-transitive Dice

Logic and probability