Epistemologia (LM)

  • Inductive Logic and Rational Decision

This course aims at developing the basics of probability logic and its application to problems of inductive inference and rational decision. Familiarity with classical propositional logic is a useful pre-requisite for this course.

  1. Logico-mathematical preliminaries (from an elementary algebraic point of view)
  2. Probability logic (a.k.a. inductive logic)
  3. Probability, uncertainty and rationality


Timetable for 2018 (external link to Studi Umanistici)


Three written, in-class, tests, to be held at the end of each module. Those are not compulsory, but highly recommended. Three 30s make a 30 with no further examination needed.

Lecture notes

Versione aggiornata il 2 maggio 2018



A tutorial on conditional probability


Foundations of probability

  • de Finetti, B. (1931). Sul significato soggettivo della probabilità. Fundamenta Mathematicae, 17, 289–329.
  • Ramsey, F. P. (1931). Truth and probability (1926). In R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.), The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays (pp. 156–198). Kegan, Paul & Co, London.
  • de Finetti, B. (1938). Cambridge Probability Theorists. Rivista Di Matematica per Le Scienze Economiche E Sociali, (2), 79–91.
  • Jeffrey, R. C. (1968). Probable Knowledge. In I. Lakatos (Ed.), The Problem of Inductive Logic (pp. 166–180). North-Holland.
  • de Finetti, B. (1963). La decisione nell’incertezza. Scientia, 98, 61–68.

Topics in probability

  • Syua, E. D. (2013). Jacob Bernoulli and the Mathematics of Tennis, Nuncius, 28, 142–163.
  • Bianchi, L. A. (2018). Bayes e Bias. In Probabilità, Rischio e Previsione”, L’Aquila 3-5 maggio 2017.
  • Isola, S. (2018). Alcune osservazioni su probabilità, illusioni e senso comune. In Probabilità, Rischio e Previsione”, L’Aquila 3-5 maggio 2017.
  • Winkler, P. (2017). The Sleeping Beauty. The American Mathematical Monthly, 124(7), 579–587.
  • Samet, D., Samet, I., & Schmeidler, D. (2004). One Observation behind Two-Envelope Puzzles. The American Mathematical Monthly, 111(4), 347–351.
  • Grime, J: “Non-transitive Dice

Logic and probability